27. Weekly Technical Analysis Report of BTC, ETH & Altcoins
We have seen a range bound movement in BTC ever since our last article published a week ago. Currently, it seems like BTC is playing on a swing between $8950 to $9400. This type of lackluster markets can lead to a huge rise or fall in prices sooner or later.
The total market capitalization of the markets has come down from $276 Billion to $259 Billion from June 5th to July 5th despite the fact that BTC has come down barely 2% during the same time period.
Market Capitalisation
Market Capitalisation means the total value of the coins listed on crypto exchanges in terms of USD. Market capitalization in the stock market is calculated very easily like the price at which it trades multiplied by the total number of shares of that company but in cryptos, it is a bit different as the calculation is based on the total coins in circulation multiplied by the value of each coin in terms of USD. For example, in the case of Bitcoin, maximum circulation is 21 Million out of which only 18.4 Million coins of them are mined as of now. So market capitalization is calculated based on those coins that are available for now multiplied by the price at which it trades in terms of USD.
Technical analysis of the above charts indicates that the support is around $250 Billion to $252 Billion and resistance at $286 Billion and we are currently around $259 Billion.
Supports –
$250-252 Billion (weak)
$238.50-240.21 Billion
$225-230 Billion (neutral)
$209.50-211.50 billion – (if breaks neutral)
$200 Billion (strong + psychological)
Resistances –
$259-261 billion (weak)
$270 Billion (neutral)
$286 Billion
$300 Billion (strong + psychological)
So coming back to Bitcoin analysis, there were some positive news of PayPal’s plan to sell Cryptos on their platform but technically still BTC is weak. Although anything can happen at this point of time bulls need to be careful as compared with the bears.
BTC has found support at $8950 four times in a span of one month which has become a strong support for now as it has always bounced back from that level. Yesterday the prices of BTC at CME has closed at $9125 so any price at which the BTC will trade tomorrow will create a gap on the up or downside. So we will have to wait to see where the CME prices open on Monday (6th of July 2020).
We have seen strong support at $8950 as BTC has been bouncing from this point whenever there was a fall in BTC prices. On the upside, it has struggled to close above $9650 and stay there for some time which gives the impression that Bulls are not so strong currently.
BTC is looking bearish in the short term as almost all the indicators are showing signs of weakness. Let us analysis one by one.
- Daily RSI continuously falling at its Moving averages. If the Daily RSI is above 45 support as shown at the bottom of the chart then it will signal bullish sentiments but this has not happened. Daily RSI beneath resistance zone.
- Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for 55 days is looking weak.
So my conclusion is simple which is to wait for a drop to $7000-$8000 levels in case of technical breakdown or going long only if the RSI uptrend is confirmed at $10000 level. Anything in between is really not so safe.
Support:
$8910,
$8620,
$8370,
$8044,
$7720 (Strong Support)
Resistance:
$9250,
$9450,
$9700,
$9810,
$10000,
$10340 (Strong Resistance)
Analysis of ETH
ETH has remained flat since last week as nothing much happened in terms of price movement. There was a lot of expectation for ETH to make a move because of the DeFi rally that we are seeing in some altcoins. Traders are waiting for more announcement to come from ETH community on the launch of ETH 2.0 after which we can expect some movement in the prices. Fundamentally it is still a strong buy as it is around its support zone. I personally expect ETH to be range-bound with limited downside risk. Right now ETH is trading around $225 which has the support at $217.
ETH has immediate support at $217 and then at $212. So we can expect ETH to bounce back from those levels if in case it falls but on the upside, we can expect it to face resistance at $249 and $254 but will come under heavy resistance around $284.
Altcoin Analysis:
Last week we saw the altcoin rally continuing but limited mostly to DeFi projects. Seems to me like the steam is still there for some movement in the altcoin space. But will be cautious to put a lot of money into them at this point of time. I feel there can be a rally sooner or later in the altcoin of high market cap as this has not happened so far. Only the low market cap coins are flying especially from the DeFi space.
The coins that I am personally expecting some good returns for the week include:
ARDR/BTC, ALGO/BTC, SNT/BTC, MANA/BTC, STEEM/BTC
These coins look good technically and also have some good news that is coming out very soon. You can expect 20-50% gains in these coins provided BTC doesn’t make any drastic movements. You need to have a stop loss of 7-10% to be on the safer side.
The information provided on this website does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. You should not treat any of the article’s content as such. Author, website or the company associated with them does not recommend that any cryptocurrency should be bought, sold, or held by you. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
Guruprasad Venkatesha is Co-Founder & CEO of b-cube.ai, a French-Hungarian startup making trading in cryptocurrencies easier & more profitable using AI/ML and complex mathematical models. He started his first asset management company when he was 16 years old and had a successful exit later. Then he went on to work for Morgan Stanley as an Investment analyst then he quit the job to jump into the world of Cryptocurrencies.
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